Edo Governorship Election: Factors in favour of Ize-Iyamu

By Jimoh Eronmwon Ezomon

The campaign for Edo State governorship election is on top gear. The various candidates are crisscrossing the length and breadth of the state trying to convince the electorates why they are the best candidates.

There are two major players in the election,  Pastor Ize Iyamu and Godwin Obaseki; the so called anointed candidate of Adams Oshiomhole – the godfather of APC.

Before I go any further, let me say that I am neither a member of APC nor PDP. I am a political enthusiast and pay concerned interest in the way things are going at home.

I came back from Nigeria on Sunday and I can report that the result of the election will be a very big surprise to many.

No one would have thought that PDP after 8 years will win even a councillorship election in the state. I personally couldn’t imagine that someone very close to Lucky Igbinedion will ever come this far politically, at this time.

Abinitio, Iyamu was unsuccessfully tied to Igbinedion unproductive years as governor. Undeterred, he organised a formidable campaign; building on his many years of experience as a political tactician.

A good student of Mr. Fix it, he capitalised on the many mistakes of APC to emerge the front runner.

Obaseki, though single handedly put there by Oshiomhole,  is also having his undoing coming from him. Oshiomhole alienated the leadership of the party in the emergence of Obaseki. He equally single handedly picked his deputy. He stepped heavily on the toes of his subservient deputy, Dr. Odubu, sited a university in his home town. Called the bluff of the Esans, motor cycle riders, spare parts sellers, local government employees; he brought untold hardships on the people through the imposition of multiple taxations, empowering his Agberoes and secret cult agents to deal mercilessly on anyone or group that stands on his way.

Those who had encounters with the so called Oshiomhole police will never forget their experiences.

Let us give Oshiomole the credit for his first term. The fact that Lucky failed doesn’t mean that Oshiomhole performing better automatically qualify him for a  pass mark. In assessing him, you have to look at how much he has gotten from the federal government, IGR, borrowing and international grants for development. Until we have a clear record, it will be hard to mark his scripts.

Rhetorically, Oshiomole is a master dribbler. He has strong oratory qualities. He shows his understanding of the problems of the masses but he can only go as far as his brain can take him. He so much believe in himself to know when the music had stopped.

Watch nights, mechanics, pilots, fishermen all have their duties. They are paid for their services; likewise the governor of a state. He tried. He performed. What should we expect from someone who campaigned to be given the job to do, someone with series of advisers,  free transport, food etc?

Now back to the real issue, Obaseki has been accused of not being able to deal for himself at rallies. He seems to have just one agenda, continuity.

Whether Iyamu wins or Obaseki, the winner is expected to continue from where Oshiomhole stops. Continuity is not an Agenda.

The reason why Ize-Iyamu will win the election is quite simple.

1. Alienation of party leaders by Oshiomhole in choosing the party flag bearer.

2. Oshiomhole’s alienation of party leaders in choosing the deputy.

3. Oshiomhole’s manipulation and overt contempt towards the Esans (second largest ethnic group in Edo state unfairly represented and deliberately marginalised in the APC eight years of Oshiomhole).

4. Oshiomhole’s disregard to the wise counsel of party leaders, traditional rulers and professionals.

5. Orhionmwon votes going for Ize-Iyamu.

6. Ize-Iyamu’s winning Obaseki in Benin city (the biggest voting population that decides every general election in Edo state)

7. Ize-Iyamu winning in Edo central (because of Oshiomhole’s marginalization of the people and also PDP’s choice of deputy from among the people)

8. Ize-Iyamu’s winning Obaseki in Ovia.

9. Ize-Iyamu’s winning Obaseki in Akoko-Edo (because of Oshiomhole’s marginalization of the people in his eight years in power. Akoko-Edo, although only one local government area council at the moment, is the largest voting bloc in Edo north whichcomprises Etsako, Own and Akoko-Edo peoples)

10. Sharing votes with Obaseki in Owan and Etsako.

Unless the APC does the unimaginable by using the courts to scuttle his chances, Pastor Ize Iyamu should by now, be composing his acceptance and swearing in speeches.

Mr Jimoh Eronmwon Ezomon is a sociopolitical analyst and businessman based in the Federal Republic of Germany